The Cyclical Nature Of Oil Prices

The Cyclical Nature Of Oil Prices

By on May 08 2013



Here is a summary of a great article, —The Oil and Gold Boom Are Over, " from Bloomberg about the cyclical nature of commodity prices. This is a great piece if you want to understand the overall economic pattern that controls your gas prices from decade to decade.

According to the predictions and associated facts in this piece the world economy is now entering a prolonged period of falling commodity prices. Historically commodities follow a trend of one decade up and two decades down. The world economy is now coming off of more than a decade of incredible gains in commodity prices due largely to the incredible growth in China. As is historical precedent, the market responds to tightened demand by increasing supply and over the last decade investors and countries have focused on exploration and new technology along with conservation policies to ease the supply crisis of oil and other commodities. The reaction is noticeable in the United States with the development of fracking and horizontal drilling technology that have created an energy boom in shale gas production. A flattening of demand for oil would mean a boost to the US economy as consumers and businesses would have more to save and more to spend. The pattern of the rise and fall of commodity prices has been so consistent that real prices on most materials, adjusted for inflation, have not risen since 1800. Time will tell if this pattern will hold up over the coming decade.

To read the full article from Bloomberg Click Here


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